Islam and The End of Oil

Written by Muhammad Tahir

In my last article, we saw what instant oil wealth has done to the vacationing habits of a few ultra-wealthy Saudis. But it is important to appreciate how much we all benefit from artificially cheap oil, even if you don't get a cushy stipend from the Saudi treasury.
Speaking of Saudi, it's the beginning of Dhul-Hijjah, which means that Haj is just around the corner. From its beginning, the Muslim ummah has been a nation of travellers. Just as the companions of the Prophet (saw) fanned out to spread the divine message to places the pre-Islamic Arabs never would have imagined exploring, so too did Allah's Divine guidance, combined with the companions' sincerity and dedication to the task ensure that new Muslims from every corner of the world would reverse that journey to complete this fundamental pillar of the religion. Islamic history is rich with the stories of adventurers who set out from their homes for the sacred pilgrimage only to catch the travel bug, travelling thousands of miles in varied directions as ambassadors of Islam and chroniclers of their times. Travellers like ibn Battuta and Ibn Fadlan before him provide some of the most detailed accounts of life in their time, their travels having taken them from the heart of the Muslim world to as far as the northern reaches of Europe in the west and China in the east.

Following in their footsteps, two intrepid ulema (Islamic scholars) from South Africa recently arrived in Mecca to begin their pilgrimage. What makes their story so remarkable is that they didn't fly Emirates or even South African Airways to reach Mecca. Rather, they made their journey from South Africa through Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania, Kenya, Turkey, Syria and Jordan before reaching the Saudi border - by bike. "Pedaling our way to the Kingdom from Cape Town was a grueling experience. We wanted to travel this way so that we are prepared to experience the rigors of performing the pilgrimage," Nathim Cairncross, a town planner by profession, told Arab News over the telephone.

Cairncross and his companion Imtiyaz Ahmad Haron, went on to describe their interactions with the people they met along the way: "This [travelling by bicycle] gives us a lot of opportunity to meet and interact with different people in different countries. Additionally, we continued with our Dawa work wherever we stopped for our overnight stays."

The story of the bicycling South African Hajis is a reminder that the transcontinental travel required of the remote pilgrim was not always simply a matter of a single sleepless night and a week or two of jet lag. In days gone by, going for Haj was a major undertaking from which safe return was not a forgone conclusion. Additionally, the long journey provided the opportunity to mentally and spiritually prepare oneself for what lay ahead. Pilgrims would often be accompanied by scholars - being in the prolonged company of these learned men and women would not only provide them the religious knowledge they would require to perform the rites and rituals of Haj, but also Islah (religious rectification of personal traits and habits) through observation of their daily routines and personal dealings. The communities through which they travelled would also be inspired by their example. In this way, the Haj became a means of spiritual renewal for the entire Ummah (Islamic nation).

Two books recently reminded me that self-propulsion might actually become a more prevalent mode of Haj transport if current trends continue. James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency and Christopher Steiner's $20 per Gallon provide polar opposite descriptions of what might happen as the world runs out of oil. Kunstler is pure Doomsday: head for the hills with your gun and some seeds, because civilisation as we know it will come to a grinding halt without an unlimited supply of cheap oil; governments will collapse along with all essential services, and basically everything you own will stop working because it runs on oil or something derived from oil (like natural gas or electricity). Alternative energies are a joke because they all depend on cheap oil to subsidize the cost of raw inputs. And so on. Steiner on the other hand sees the dawn of a new Nirvana: human ingenuity will find a way to do more with less, even while the rest of the world does its best to suck up all the oil the West currently uses to power its Hummers and McMansions to fill up its new Tata Nanos.

The truth of course is somewhere between these two extremes: Western governments will struggle to divert growing voter anger over the rising costs of basic necessities while economies choke on the rising cost of transportation and raw materials. We will all be the poorer, as everyone benefits from the West's policy of suppressing the market value of oil. So what does that have to do with Muslims? Lots. For better or for worse, most of the oil the West wants is under Muslim feet, which means that blaming Islam and Muslims for the downstream effects of rising energy costs is a slam dunk for Western governments.

Instead of explaining to voters that the lifestyle and amenities that they have come to take for granted are either no longer affordable (read: full-service NHS and benefits for all) or were a wild misuse of national wealth in the first place (read: massive McMansion suburbs miles away from the urban core, commuting by SUV), how much easier to blame it all on turbanned fanatics bent on blowing up oil pipelines and over-running client petro-dictatorships? Do you think it was a coincidence that Yemeni bomb-parcels were found just in time the weekend before US mid-term elections? We need to remember who is the real enemy here folks, not ravenous bankers and billionaires, but rather those pesky Moslems. I certainly feel safer now that Anwar Al-Awlaki's videos have been taken down from YouTube...

Even the push for religious liberalisation in the Muslim world makes perfect logical sense when viewed through the prism of increasing oil scarcity: which Western leader would not rather deal with a country led by a decadent, morally corrupt ruling class intent on maintaining its own privilege even at the cost of its own people? As for the people, better to keep them busy with the latest mobile phones, sexting and the latest reality show than allow them to realize that they're being robbed blind of their resource wealth. Conversely, modern commentators seem genuinely perplexed at how good an understanding even cave-dwelling, turbanned fundamentalists seem to have of the ins and outs of the Great Game. Better to to separate them from the religion that lets them see a spade for a spade.

In the short term, we can expect some perverse consequences. As the economic climate continues to deteriorate, expect more and more disinformation to distract people from the real causes of declining Western prosperity: don't expect the tabloid tone to improve anytime soon. On top of that, the resource wars abroad will only intensify.

At the end of the day, oil is a strategic commodity, which is why America spends over a $1 billion A DAY to keep its boots on the throats of most major oil-producing nations. It is a startling fact that 50% of the world's oil is supplied by just 0.03% of its oil fields. With so many wanting something so concentrated, things won’t be getting peaceful anytime soon, if you get my drift.

Conversely, as our disposable income continues to be eroded by the increasing cost of necessities like food, transportation and heating, there may be some good news. If I cannot define myself through my purchases, perhaps I'll need to spend some time thinking about who I am, not just what I buy. Of course, the media will fight tooth and nail to fill the emotional vacuum with more and more reality television and “social networking” (read: meaningless online chatting), but without non-stop shopping, we will be forced to spend more time in introspection.

So instead of announcing the doom and gloom of the end of oil, we need to appreciate that the end of oil will force us to profoundly alter our relationships with almost everything and everyone - something we currently may take for granted. There is no doubt that we will all be the poorer for it, as certainly this will be felt most acutely in the developing world. This provides both peril and possibility. What we must guard against is an erosion of our faith in Allah as Ar-Raaziq - the one who provides - just as our South African Hajis found their meals and bedtime roofs provided by strangers along the route.

"...And for those who fear Allah, He (ever) prepares a way out, And He provides for him from (sources) he never could imagine. And if any one puts his trust in Allah, sufficient is ((Allah)) for him. For Allah will surely accomplish His purpose: verily, for all things has Allah appointed a due proportion." (Talaq 65:2-3)